In a recent comprehensive analysis, asset management firm VanEck compared the two leading Move language-based blockchains, Sui and Aptos. This report delves into their technological foundations, performance metrics, and ecosystem growth, offering a detailed outlook for investors and developers. Both platforms originated from the disbanded Facebook-led Diem project and utilize the Move programming language, designed for enhanced security and parallel transaction processing.
Origins and Overview of Sui and Aptos
Sui and Aptos were developed by former members of the Diem blockchain project, initially aimed at creating a global stablecoin payment system. After regulatory challenges halted Diem, these teams leveraged their expertise to build new Layer-1 blockchains using the Move smart contract language. Derived from Rust, Move enhances transaction speed and throughput, making Aptos and Sui notable for their technical innovation.
The Move ecosystem has expanded rapidly, with the combined market capitalization of related blockchains growing from $5 billion to $22 billion within a year. Move also lowers the entry barrier for new developers in the cryptocurrency space. As VanEck notes, there are far fewer crypto developers than JavaScript programmers globally. By offering a more accessible and efficient language, Move has the potential to attract a broader developer base, fostering experimentation and innovation.
Blockchain Performance and Scalability
Transaction Processing Methods
Although both Aptos and Sui use Move, they implement different versions tailored to their transaction processing approaches. Both employ parallel processing but differ in execution.
Sui uses static parallel processing, which identifies conflicts before transactions begin and determines the execution order. This method increases efficiency and reduces resource waste during processing.
- Advantages: Higher transaction throughput and lower computational overhead, ideal for DeFi applications like decentralized exchanges (DEXs).
- Challenges: Requires more meticulous transaction design from developers.
Aptos utilizes dynamic parallel processing, where transactions are processed without pre-labeling state access parts. Conflicts are resolved by rolling back and reordering transactions.
- Advantages: More developer-friendly and adaptable to various application scenarios.
- Challenges: May encounter efficiency issues in high-intensity trading environments, such as NFT drops or high-volume DEX activity.
Transaction Throughput
Aptos achieved 13.3K TPS in October 2024, while Sui demonstrates stronger theoretical scalability. Aptos relies on Quorum Store technology to enhance throughput, whereas Sui uses Pilot Fish for horizontal scaling of validator processing power.
Ethereum as a Slow Restaurant: How Move Blockchains Reform Architecture
VanEck employs a restaurant metaphor to simplify blockchain functionality:
- The blockchain is the restaurant, providing the foundational infrastructure.
- Users are customers who place orders (transactions).
- On-chain applications are waiters, relaying orders to the kitchen (validators).
- Validators are the kitchen, processing orders (transactions) and delivering outcomes (state changes).
- State changes represent the food delivered to customers.
Ethereum processes state updates sequentially, with small blocks handling limited transactions. Even if transactions affect different state parts, they must wait their turn. Imagine Ethereum as a restaurant with many waiters but only one chef. Orders pile up, leading to long wait times and high "tips" (gas fees) for priority service.
Sui’s Static Parallelism: Similar to Solana
In Sui’s restaurant, waiters categorize orders based on kitchen sections needed. For instance, if two tables order fried calamari, the chef efficiently uses the fryer concurrently. This pre-ordering prevents conflicts and optimizes resource use.
Aptos’ Dynamic Parallelism: Comparable to Monad
Aptos’ waiters don’t interfere with the kitchen. A dispatcher assumes no conflicts and orders chefs to start cooking. If conflicts arise, meals are discarded, and orders are reworked. While this seems inefficient, Aptos’ kitchen speed minimizes disruptions under normal conditions.
Developer Experience vs. Efficiency
Aptos offers a more developer-friendly environment because applications need not predefine resource conflicts. This simplicity accelerates development and reduces coding overhead. However, Sui’s pre-conflict resolution makes it more efficient for high-demand scenarios like DEXs.
In the restaurant analogy, Sui’s pre-sorted orders prevent kitchen chaos during peak hours. Aptos dynamically handles conflicts but may struggle under extreme demand, leading to delays and inefficiencies.
Sui introduces a localized fee market, where high demand for specific resources (e.g., a popular DEX pool) increases fees only for those services, unlike Aptos and Ethereum’s global fee models. This approach keeps unrelated transactions affordable during demand spikes.
For simple payments, Sui outperforms rivals with latency as low as 300ms using its Fast Path feature. Pilot Fish allows validators to add servers for near-infinite scaling. Aptos’ Quorum Store enhances throughput by enabling multiple validators to process transactions initially, not just the leader.
DeFi Maturity and Stablecoin Strength
Both chains are relatively young, but Sui leads in user metrics and economic activity. Sui’s monthly active addresses reached 9.2 million, slightly above Aptos’ 8.9 million. However, address counts may overstate unique users due to multi-address controls.
Sui generated $10.4 million in fee revenue last year, six times Aptos’ $1.7 million. Sui’s transaction volume was $38.3 billion, 3.5x higher than Aptos’ $10.8 billion. Sui’s DeFi TVL stands at $1.6 billion, compared to Aptos’ $930 million. Conversely, Aptos boasts stronger stablecoin adoption, with $750 million versus Sui’s $476 million.
雇佣Capital Challenges
Sui’s lending protocols, Suilend and Navi, each exceed $450 million TVL, while Aptos’ largest lending platform trails at $300 million. Sui dominates perpetual futures trading via Bluefin, averaging $250 million daily volume. Aptos excels in decentralized stablecoins with Thala ($135 million TVL versus Sui’s Bucket Protocol at $73 million).
Both networks incentivize growth through token rewards. Sui distributed over 70 million SUI (worth ~$300 million) in 2024, adding 5.2%–10% APY to DeFi yields. Aptos allocated ~10 million APT ($100 million) for similar incentives, offering 6.5%–20% APY on various activities. These programs spurred rapid DeFi expansion but rely heavily on "雇佣capital" – users chasing rewards rather than organic adoption. Sustainability remains uncertain.
Developer Communities and Cultural traction
Both chains lag behind established ecosystems in developer activity. Sui averaged 280 weekly active developers in early 2024, and Aptos had 272. By comparison, Ethereum and Solana boast 3,300 and 1,200, respectively. Combined, Sui and Aptos constitute under 4% of all crypto developers.
Sui leads in Google search trends, outperforming Aptos by nearly 9x. Notably, Sui’s search popularity surpassed Solana’s on 17 days and Ethereum’s on 16 days over the past 90 days.
The limited developer bases hinder differentiated dApp innovation. For example, Sui’s top perpetual exchange, Bluefin, runs its trading engine off-chain on private servers, not leveraging Sui’s native capabilities.
Trading Experience: Sui’s Edge
VanEck asserts Sui offers a superior trading experience due to:
- Programmable Transaction Blocks (PTBs) enabling dynamic, real-time decisions.
- Predictable gas pricing.
- Favorable fee structures for large transactions.
- Localized fee markets.
- DeepBook, a native centralized limit order book (CLOB).
PTBs allow transactions to determine actions based on on/off-chain data, crucial for DEX aggregators. DeepBook pools liquidity globally, providing deeper markets and fairer pricing for all applications.
Tokenomics: Unlocks and Inflation
A key difference lies in token supplies. SUI has a fixed cap, while APT has no hard cap, with a 6.7% annual inflation rate decreasing by 1.5% yearly. Aptos burns transaction fees to counter inflation, whereas Sui rewards stakers with fees, benefiting from frequent transactions.
Both face significant token unlocks. Aptos’ float is 39.9% versus Sui’s 30.9%. Over the next year, Aptos will unlock 11.9% of its supply ($1.2 billion at current prices), and Sui will unlock 7.6% ($3.65 billion).
Valuation and Price Predictions for 2025
VanEck’s valuation model bases projections on expected market share within the smart contract platform (SCP) total market cap, tied to U.S. M2 money supply growth. By end-2025, M2 is estimated at $22.3 trillion, with SCP市值 reaching $1.1 trillion (43% growth from $770 billion).
Move-based blockchains currently hold 2.7% SCP share (Aptos 0.7%, Sui 2%). This is forecast to rise to 6.5% by end-2025.
Price Targets
- Sui: Predicted to capture 5.5% SCP share, implying a $61 billion market cap. With 30 billion tokens unlocked by January 2025, the price would reach ~$16, a 326% increase from $3.75.
- Aptos: Expected to hold 1% SCP share, equating to an $11 billion market cap. With 50.5% supply unlocked (507 million tokens), the price would hit ~$22, a 201% rise from $7.30.
Conclusion: Sui’s Advantages
VanEck favors Sui due to its performance edge, scalability (via Pilot Fish/Fast Path), and economic attractiveness. The localized fee market and DeepBook enhance its DeFi ecosystem. However, Aptos’ flexibility and robust architecture may prove competitive long-term. Success hinges on sustaining innovation and expanding ecosystems.
Investment Risks
Novel Blockchain Designs: Both chains are untested in extreme stress conditions, with most activity being simple transactions, not complex DeFi loads.
Competition: Established players like Ethereum and Solana have larger developer communities and resources. New rivals like Monad and Berachain add pressure. Solana’s Firedancer upgrade in 2025 could outperform both in speed.
Macro Sensitivity: Crypto markets correlate highly with monetary policy cycles. M2 money supply growth influences SCP valuations, emphasizing macroeconomic risks.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Move programming language?
Move is a smart contract language derived from Rust, designed for high security and parallel execution. It was initially developed for the Diem project and now powers Sui and Aptos, offering improved efficiency and developer accessibility.
How do Sui and Aptos handle transaction processing differently?
Sui uses static parallel processing, pre-identifying conflicts to optimize order. Aptos uses dynamic processing, resolving conflicts during execution. This makes Sui more efficient for high-throughput applications, while Aptos offers greater developer flexibility.
Which blockchain has better growth potential?
VanEck’s analysis suggests Sui has stronger technical advantages and scalability, potentially leading to higher adoption. However, Aptos’ developer-friendly approach could attract more innovation long-term. Both face significant token unlocks that may impact prices.
What are the major risks for investors?
Key risks include untested blockchain designs under heavy load, competition from established ecosystems, and macroeconomic sensitivity. Token unlocks may also increase selling pressure in the short term.
How do fee structures differ between Sui and Aptos?
Sui employs a localized fee market, where high demand for specific resources raises fees only for those services. Aptos uses a global fee model, where any demand spike increases costs for all users.
Can these blockchains scale effectively?
Sui’s Pilot Fish and Fast Path features enable near-infinite horizontal scaling and low-latency transactions. Aptos’ Quorum Store allows multiple validators to process transactions, improving throughput. Both aim to overcome scalability limitations of earlier blockchains like Ethereum.