Cryptocurrency has once again captured widespread attention. With prices surging, investors need to know when to start being cautious. Based on historical data and price movements since 2013, the crypto market may still have room to expand further, entering a bubble phase and reaching unsustainable highs.
The only question now is what event will trigger the next bear market, which will most likely begin in 2025.
In this article, we explore the real signals that indicate a market peak. These signals are often obvious yet frequently overlooked or misunderstood. Technical analysis on YouTube and Twitter (X) isn't always reliable, as most so-called "experts" are merely guessing.
That said, the market is already on the verge of its final sprint, with a "parabolic trend" imminent. The opportunity is here, but while we anticipate new all-time highs, we must also prepare for the inevitable price crash.
Simply put, our goal is to identify market euphoria before the bubble bursts, profit, and exit smoothly. This journey can be thrilling, but to win, you must know when to step back.
In December 2022, eight indicators showed entry signals. By 2023, the remaining two appeared, leading to a significant market rebound. While most panicked, some bought during the downturn. When fear dominates, opportunities arise.
Contrary to popular sentiment, when certain indicators start flashing red, it’s time to be alert. While exact predictions are impossible, preparedness is essential.
Without further ado, here are the top 10 indicators to watch when a new bubble is about to burst. When these signals appear, it’s time to step off the hype train.
Key Signals of a Market Top
1) Heavy Promotion of Crypto on Television
When TV programs and financial news sites suddenly show intense interest in cryptocurrency, reporting on prices increases rapidly and becomes omnipresent. However, beyond speculative hype, real-world applications remain scarce, with only a few projects pursuing practical use cases.
Mainstream media saturation is a red flag. It often means the market is overheated and nearing a crash, especially after attracting waves of new investors. Even entertainment shows with little financial expertise will start discussing crypto simply because it’s a trending topic.
Once crypto mania goes mainstream, the bubble typically lasts only two to three months. We saw this in 2013, 2017, and 2021. Late 2024 to early 2025 will likely be no exception. We haven’t entered the euphoric phase yet, so until media attention spikes significantly, concerns remain low.
2) Celebrity and Influencer Endorsements
Celebrity and social media influencer endorsements are often financial counter-indicators, especially when they involve questionable financial promotions.
Research from early 2021, analyzing 2017 events (and subsequent similar cases), shows that celebrities and influencers have nearly identical effects on crypto prices. Beyond Twitter (X), TikTok, and Instagram, top Twitch streamers also promote dubious cryptocurrencies and platforms. These campaigns usually peak when the market does, and many promoters fail to disclose their compensation, feigning genuine interest.
The common thread among celebrities, influencers, and streamers suddenly promoting crypto is their general lack of understanding about its actual utility.
3) Increase in Scams
Historical patterns show that as the market nears its peak, fraudulent activities surge.
Scammers redouble their efforts, deploying fake exchange websites, large-scale phishing attacks, and rug pulls from fraudulent projects or Ponzi schemes.
Billions of dollars in cryptocurrency may be cashed out into fiat, leading to significant capital outflow from the market and impacting liquidity.
4) Google Trends "Buy Cryptocurrency" Metric
Previously, "Buy Bitcoin" was the benchmark, but this has changed for various reasons.
The key insight is that this data is lagging. It reflects interest from about a week prior, not real-time sentiment.
When the chart shows a parabolic rise like in 2021, it's good news for existing investors but signals high risk for newcomers. This is the market's nature, and you must choose your position.
During the euphoric phase, it's time to consider selling, not making impulsive investment decisions. In times of high emotion, swift and decisive action is crucial.
Selling strategies can vary, but a full exit is often not the optimal approach.
👉 Explore real-time market sentiment tools
5) Retail FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)
Mass retail FOMO is a reliable indicator of a market top. The "fear of missing out" is a common psychological driver behind unwise investment choices.
While FOMO can be "shorted," caution is advised, as markets can remain irrational longer than expected.
6) Prices Soar to Unrealistic Levels (Awaiting Parabolic Moves)
It's common knowledge to avoid buying in these conditions:
However, trading volume always peaks at market highs. At this point, most potential investors—typically the retail target audience—enter the market to buy.
Meanwhile, smart money that entered early exits quietly yet swiftly, while the news and publications they influence remain overwhelmingly positive.
7) Crypto Becomes a Status Symbol
When owning cryptocurrency becomes a social status symbol, it's a warning sign.
You'll see people wearing crypto-branded hats, clothing, and accessories on social media. When crypto becomes fashionable, it often means the market is driven more by social sentiment than fundamentals, typically signaling an imminent peak.
When crypto suddenly turns into a status symbol, prepare to sell.
8) Exchange Outages
During periods of heightened market activity, major centralized (CEX) and decentralized (DEX) exchanges often experience outages due to overwhelming user traffic.
This surge usually occurs around market peaks when everyone is scrambling to buy or sell.
While this indicates overheating, it alone doesn't confirm a bear market start and must be combined with other signals.
9) Cycle Position
Halving events act as timers for market cycles, and a bull market cannot end so quickly. The positive effects of a halving typically take 12 to 18 months to fully manifest.
Prices could spike dramatically at any moment, and a parabolic move could begin anytime in the remaining months of 2024.
That said, sharp corrections can also happen suddenly, but these often recover quickly, suggesting a parabolic trend is almost inevitable.
So far, every bull market has had these moments, causing early panic among investors. Exchanges make billions from market volatility, so flash crashes are unavoidable.
There is no bear market yet, and 2024 is highly unlikely to see one, even though profitability per cycle tends to decrease as cycles mature. Most likely, these indicators will start flashing warnings in Q1 2025.
10) Your Barber Buys Crypto
No disrespect to any profession—barbers provide an essential service—but if you've missed all the other indicators and failed to recognize you're in a bubble, your barber might be the last signal you need.
So, when prices have been rising relentlessly, visit your barber regularly, say monthly. But the key is that the barber must bring up the topic unprompted; otherwise, the indicator loses its predictive power.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most reliable indicator of a crypto market top?
No single indicator is foolproof, but a combination of signals is most reliable. Widespread media hype, a surge in celebrity endorsements, and high retail FOMO together often signal an approaching peak. Historical patterns, like those following halving events, also provide context.
How long does a crypto bull market typically last after a halving?
The positive impact of a Bitcoin halving usually unfolds over 12 to 18 months. Bull markets often peak within this window, but the exact timing can vary based on broader market conditions, adoption rates, and macroeconomic factors.
Should I sell all my crypto when these indicators appear?
A full exit is rarely ideal. Consider a strategic partial sell-off to secure profits while retaining some exposure. Diversification and a clear risk management strategy are crucial. 👉 Get advanced portfolio management methods
Can a crypto bull market end without these signs?
While these indicators are common markers of past cycles, markets can evolve. New factors, such as regulatory changes or major technological shifts, could influence the cycle. Always combine multiple data points for decision-making.
How can I avoid scams during market peaks?
Stay skeptical of too-good-to-be-true returns, double-check website URLs, avoid clicking unknown links, and use well-known, secure platforms for transactions. Education and caution are your best defenses.
Is Google Trends a good tool for predicting crypto peaks?
Google Trends provides lagging data, reflecting searches from about a week prior. It's useful for gauging general retail interest but should not be used alone. Combine it with on-chain data, volume analysis, and other sentiment indicators.
Conclusion
Here's a prediction made back in 2021:
After the market peaks, Bitcoin will fall significantly, followed by a two-year bear market.
The current parabolic trend seems over. If prices rise again, the next peak will likely be the last, but I doubt it will happen.
I believe the market has peaked and may not reach highs again until 2024.
— Pantera (March 3, 2022)
Relying on a single indicator won’t suffice to sound the alarm. Usually, a combination of signals is necessary. However, the tenth indicator alone can sometimes be a significant warning.
Notably, none of these indicators currently suggest the market has peaked. While a bubble likely exists, there's still room for growth before it bursts. Presently, with a score of 0/10 on these indicators, the chance that the bull market ends here without a parabolic move is nearly zero.
Once most or all indicators appear, it might already be too late. Therefore, be cautious about which crypto influencers you follow.
For now, excessive worry isn't necessary, but ensure you research actual indicators to make sound investment decisions.
Currently, all dips are being bought, interest is rising slowly, and no indicators are flashing strong sell signals. However, overconfidence could be an unlisted eleventh indicator. So, while we observe various analyses and signals, conditions can change rapidly, and all we can do is manage risk effectively.