This week witnessed a dramatic reversal in the crypto markets. Bears were thoroughly liquidated as a powerful bullish wave returned. Bitcoin decisively broke through the $100,000 barrier, fueled by record weekly inflows into spot ETFs. Institutional confidence has recovered significantly. On-chain capital flowed back to Ethereum, leading gains among major assets, while meme coins and high-beta tokens also surged, indicating a market entering a FOMO-driven frenzy. From a cascade of short liquidations to a soaring greed index, and from whales accumulating against the trend to long-term holders increasing their positions, on-chain data and sentiment signals weave together the overture of a bull market counterattack. Let's break down the key drivers and market pulse behind this upward momentum.
Spot ETF Inflows Exceed $600 Million, Propelling BTC Past $100K
Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a strong return of capital this week, injecting crucial momentum into the market. Data reveals that net inflows for the week ending May 9th surpassed $600 million, marking the strongest weekly performance since mid-March. Significant green bars on flow charts expanded from the beginning of May, with single-day inflows repeatedly exceeding $100 million. This rhythm of capital influx moved in lockstep with Bitcoin's price, ultimately driving a powerful breakthrough of the key psychological barrier at $100,000, setting a new all-time high. This returning wave of capital not only reflects renewed confidence among institutional investors but may also be closely related to improved performance in risk assets overall and growing market expectations for a shift towards a more accommodative macroeconomic policy. The high positive correlation between ETF flows and BTC price reaffirms the dominant role spot ETFs play in setting the market's rhythm.
Bears Get Squeezed: Over $1 Billion in Liquidations in 24 Hours
As ETF funds returned and prices broke through historic levels, a chain reaction swiftly ignited. Short positions bore the brunt, facing unprecedented liquidation pressure. Liquidation heatmaps show that total liquidations across the network in the past 24 hours reached a staggering $1.06 billion, a rare recent high. Bitcoin alone accounted for $375 million in daily liquidations, while Ethereum saw massive liquidations of $309 million. Together, these two assets comprised nearly 70% of the total liquidations. The majority of these liquidations came from short positions, indicating a comprehensive rout for bears after key resistance levels were broken. The forced closing of these substantial short positions further accelerated the price increase, injecting a new round of powerful fuel for the bulls. If the bullish offensive continues to intensify, it could trigger an even larger cascade of short liquidations in the coming days, creating a short-term explosive rally scenario.
Greed Index Returns to "Greed" After Three Months
Driven by the dual forces of strong capital回流 (returning flow) and bear capitulation, market sentiment has been thoroughly ignited. The latest data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has officially returned to the "Greed" zone, climbing to a reading of 73. This is the first time it has reached this level in three months, symbolizing a comprehensive recovery in risk appetite and confidence. However, this warming sentiment also implies potential overheating risks. Historical experience suggests that when the greed index breaks above 60 and remains elevated, market volatility often increases, and the risk of a short-term correction should not be ignored. Therefore, while enjoying the current upswing, it is advisable for investors to begin reviewing their portfolio allocations and consider taking some profits incrementally to prepare for potential volatility or pullbacks.
Capital Returns to Mainnets: Ethereum Leads Net Inflows
Accompanying the rising greed and price breakouts, on-chain data indicates that capital is returning to mainnets. This week, the Ethereum network recorded $590 million in inflows against $430 million in outflows, securing the top spot for net inflows and powerfully absorbing market momentum. This return of funds is closely tied to ETH reclaiming the $2,000 level, signaling a resurgence of the mainnet narrative. Meanwhile, emerging chains like Arbitrum (Hyperliquid), Sei, and Base continued to attract capital, reflecting a balance being struck between mainnet and high-beta bets. In contrast, overheated narratives like Berachain, Polygon PoS, and OP Mainnet faced profit-taking, with Berachain seeing net outflows of over $100 million this week. Overall, on-chain capital is shifting from defense to active deployment, building momentum for the market's next potential upswing.
ETH Leads Major Assets as PENGU Surges 31%
This wave of capital and narrative热潮 (enthusiasm) was quickly reflected in token prices. The market continued its strong rebound this week, with the majority of tokens rising across the board. Leading blue-chip assets were spearheaded by ETH (+19.2%), reflecting renewed recognition of the mainnet story. On the other hand, the AI and meme coin sectors exploded again, with notable performances from VIRTUAL (+22.9%), PEPE (+23.5%), EOS (+21.3%), TAO (+17.8%), and AAVE (+16.6%), attracting a flood of short-term capital. The new meme star, PENGU (+31.3%), took the lead, strongly grabbing attention.
Although the overall sentiment was optimistic this week, it's important to be mindful of rotation and pullback risks. Some assets like OP (-5.4%), IMX (-4.3%), and RAY (-3.7%) experienced corrections, reminding us that rebound trends are rarely linear and short-term震荡 (volatility) pressure remains. Overall, the market is in a phase where optimism and FOMO are rapidly heating up. Investors are advised to take profits in batches at appropriate times, locking in gains while enjoying the rally, and to prepare for potential corrections.
Arizona Becomes a Pioneer U.S. Bitcoin Reserve State
In a historic development for crypto policy, Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs formally signed Bill 2749, establishing a state-led Bitcoin and digital asset reserve fund. This makes Arizona the second U.S. state, after New Hampshire, to incorporate crypto assets into a state-level fiscal tool. According to the bill, this reserve program will be managed by the state treasury department and will include income from airdrops, staking rewards, and unclaimed assets. If these assets remain unclaimed for three years, they will be incorporated into the fund for use.
More importantly, these assets can be staked by qualified institutions to generate returns, further solidifying the milestone significance of "crypto assets entering the national balance sheet." This policy heralds the opening of a new era—where crypto is no longer just a speculative target but is formally integrated into government reserve asset structures, adding a heavyweight endorsement to Bitcoin's journey towards "digital gold" status.
Analyzing Key Resistance: The $95k-$98k Zone
As Bitcoin's price gradually recovers and approaches the $95K–$98K range, the market is entering a critical zone where technical and psychological pressures highly overlap. This price band is not only a psychological整数 (round number) barrier but also contains a significant amount of on-chain cost basis and potentially underwater capital, making it a major resistance area for the current rebound. Chart analysis shows that the supply density within the $95K–$98K interval is noticeably elevated, indicating that a large number of investors built their positions at this price and are still at an unrealized loss. These short-to-medium-term holders, who are near their break-even point, are highly likely to choose to sell to cut losses or break even as the price approaches their cost basis, creating "capitulation selling pressure."
Simultaneously, the potential profit-taking pressure from Long-Term Holders (LTHs) is also approaching a high-risk threshold. The average unrealized profit for LTHs is nearing 350%, a level that has historically often triggered分批 (batch) distribution. This threshold also happens to fall near the $95K–$98K range. In other words, short-term capitulation pressure and long-term profit-taking pressure overlap, creating a "dual selling pressure" structure in this zone, making it a testing ground for Bitcoin bulls aiming to advance further. However, if the market can effectively break through and hold above $98K, it will enter a region of sparse supply above (especially above $100K), indicating that historical overhead selling pressure has mostly been digested, significantly reducing resistance and paving the way for the price to challenge its previous all-time high and potentially set new peaks.
As the crypto market matures, deconstructing the behavioral drivers behind key technical levels from an on-chain perspective will become an indispensable advantage for future investment decisions. Right now, the market is at this critical pressure point, awaiting a clear signal for a breakout or retreat.
Frequently Asked Questions
What caused Bitcoin to surge past $100,000?
The breakout was primarily driven by massive weekly inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs, exceeding $600 million, which signaled strong renewed institutional demand. This buying pressure, combined with a significant short squeeze that liquidated over $1 billion in bearish bets, created powerful upward momentum.
Is the market becoming overheated now that the Fear & Greed Index is in 'Greed'?
While the return to 'Greed' signifies strong bullish sentiment and can fuel further gains, it has historically also been a precursor to increased volatility and potential short-term corrections. Investors should remain optimistic but also consider prudent risk management strategies like taking partial profits.
What is the significance of a U.S. state like Arizona creating a Bitcoin reserve?
Arizona's move is a significant step in the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency. It treats Bitcoin as a legitimate reserve asset on a state government level, moving beyond speculation and providing a powerful, institutional-grade endorsement that other states and entities may follow.
What does negative funding rate mean alongside a rising price?
A negative funding rate on exchanges like Binance indicates that traders are paying to hold short positions (betting against the price), even as the price rises. This creates a contrarian signal, often seen before a short squeeze, where rising prices force these short sellers to buy back, accelerating the upward move.
Why is the $95K-$98K range considered major resistance?
This zone represents a high concentration of capital where many investors initially bought in. As prices approach their break-even point, these holders may sell to exit positions, creating selling pressure. Additionally, long-term holders see high unrealized profits here, which may incentivize some to take profits.
Where can I learn more about advanced on-chain analysis techniques?
Understanding market cycles and investor behavior through data is key to navigating volatile markets. 👉 Explore more strategies for on-chain analysis to gain a deeper insight into potential market movements.
Summary
This week, the market turned decisively towards a strong counteroffensive. Prices hit new highs, capital accelerated its return, and sentiment warmed noticeably, marking a激烈 (fierce) turning point in the bull-bear battle. Bitcoin successfully broke the $100,000 mark, on-chain capital强势 (strongly) returned to Ethereum, and spot ETF net inflows coupled with whale accumulation advanced simultaneously, rapidly heating up the bull market atmosphere. However, the key resistance zone of $95K–$98K remains unbroken, and the profit-taking threshold for long-term holders, coupled with macroeconomic noise, still harbors potential downward pressure. This reminds us that while the trend is strong, risk control remains crucial. The key going forward lies in maintaining a steady rhythm and making冷静 (calm) judgments amidst optimism and rationality.