The crypto market operates in cycles, each with unique features but familiar underlying patterns. Understanding these rhythms is crucial for making informed decisions. Now is the time for research and learning—so when the momentum returns, you’re prepared.
Many believe it takes three full crypto cycles to truly succeed: the first to learn, the second to gain confidence and profits, and the third to achieve financial freedom. For some, this is the second bear market, with a third bull market on the horizon. The feeling is familiar, especially for those who experienced the 2019–2020 cycle.
It’s not just about price action. Market sentiment, regulatory pressure, public skepticism, and the competitive, player-versus-player (PvP) nature of altcoin trading all resurface. If you’ve been through a bear market before, you recognize these signs. That experience is a powerful advantage.
Each cycle differs slightly, but the overarching narrative remains similar. This article explores how historical patterns can help us identify the beginning of the next bull run.
The Feeling of Déjà Vu
First Bull Run and Crash
Déjà vu is the sensation that you’ve experienced a moment before. In crypto, that sensation can last years.
Many entered the market in late 2017, driven by headlines about Bitcoin’s all-time highs. Excitement turned to overconfidence. New investors often shifted from Bitcoin to newer, cheaper tokens, hoping for higher returns.
Without robust research, investments were sometimes based on little more than a website, a whitepaper, or even the color of a token’s logo. Most of these projects promised revolutionary change—decentralized supply chains, storage, or banking—but delivered very little. The result was significant financial loss for many.
This is a common story: greed, inexperience, and a lack of deeper understanding led to painful lessons. Those who stayed in crypto, however, learned from these mistakes and built a foundation for future success.
Second Bull Run and Collapse
Curiosity and greed can be powerful motivators.
After the 2017–2018 crash, the market was quiet. Similarities with today are striking:
- Regulatory crackdowns on ICOs, especially in Asia, mirror today’s heightened scrutiny in the West.
- Crypto was declared “dead” or a “scam” repeatedly—over 385 times, by some counts.
- Institutional adoption was awaited, much like today’s anticipation around Bitcoin ETFs.
- Capital flowed between tokens without significantly growing the total market cap.
- The promise of mass adoption remained unfulfilled.
Back in 2018–2019, there were few ways to engage meaningfully. Then came Ampleforth (AMPL), introducing elastic supply mechanics through rebases. It was new, exciting, and profitable.
Then came BAL, COMP, and the explosion of yield farming. Protocols rewarded users with free tokens for supplying liquidity. Yearn Finance’s YFI and SushiSwap’s SUSHI introduced high-yield opportunities that felt too good to be true—and sometimes were.
These models often relied on continuous new inflows. When inflow slowed, token prices fell, and pools collapsed. The key lesson? Timing matters. Knowing when to enter—and when to exit—is everything.
How Bull Markets Begin and End
Capital often enters the ecosystem through Bitcoin, then trickles into altcoins. But one element is critical: innovative forms of “money printing.”
In crypto, we criticize central banks for devaluing currency—yet the industry has become expert at creating new tokens. First, there was Bitcoin. Then came forks like Bitcoin Cash, Litecoin, and others. Then ERC-20 tokens made launching new assets cheap and easy.
But eventually, the supply of new tokens exceeded incoming capital. The same thing happened during DeFi Summer. Protocols issued governance tokens to bootstrap liquidity. When daily token issuance outpaced new money entering the system, the market corrected.
NFTs saw a similar cycle. Initial excitement and rapid minting were followed by collapsing prices when attention waned. Today, only a few NFT collections retain significant value.
The Next Bull Run: New Narrative, Same Mechanics
New narratives often emerge before major capital influxes. Two stand out today:
Restaking
EigenLayer allows Ethereum stakers to “restake” their ETH, extending security to other networks in return for additional yield. This creates new token incentives and complex economices.
Liquid restaking tokens like Stader’s rsETH are already emerging. The narrative extends beyond Ethereum—Cosmos’s Replicated Security allows ATOM stakers to secure other chains.
Restaking could create a flywheel effect: more adoption, more tokens, more speculation. The challenge is to understand the risks and opportunities early. 👉 Explore advanced staking strategies
Bitcoin DeFi
Ordinals and inscriptions have created new interest in Bitcoin-based assets. But what’s missing is a sustainable token economy.
Stacks—a Bitcoin layer for smart contracts—is set to launch sBTC, a decentralized Bitcoin peg-in system. This will allow Bitcoin to be used in DeFi on Stacks without centralized custodians.
Protocols like ALEX are building lending, trading, and yield opportunities atop Stacks. The potential for Bitcoin-native DeFi is vast—and still undervalued by many.
When Will the Bull Market Return?
Innovation alone isn’t enough. New capital is essential for a sustained bull run. Macro conditions are also improving: inflation is cooling, interest rates may peak, and regulatory pressure is easing.
If historical cycles hold, we could reach new all-time highs by late 2024, with a full bull market throughout 2025. The best opportunities will emerge just before these peaks.
Now is the time to research, learn, and prepare. When the fun starts, you’ll want to be ready.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is a crypto market cycle?
A crypto market cycle refers to the periodic fluctuations between bull (rising) and bear (falling) markets. These cycles are influenced by adoption, innovation, regulation, and macroeconomic factors.
How long do crypto cycles typically last?
Historically, full crypto cycles last about 4 years, often aligned with Bitcoin’s halving events. However, the duration can vary based on external economic conditions and technological breakthroughs.
What triggers a crypto bull market?
Bull markets are usually triggered by a combination of factors: new technological narratives (like DeFi or NFTs), increased institutional adoption, favorable regulations, or macroeconomic conditions like low interest rates.
Is it safe to invest during a bear market?
Bear markets can offer good entry points for long-term investments, but they require thorough research and risk management. Avoid investing in projects without clear utility or sustainable tokenomics.
What’s the role of tokenomics in market cycles?
Tokenomics can drive speculation and liquidity. New token models—like yield farming or restaking rewards—often kickstart cycles by attracting capital and attention. However, unsustainable emission schedules often lead to corrections.
How can I track market cycle transitions?
Monitor on-chain metrics, regulatory news, developer activity, and macroeconomic trends. Also, observe sentiment shifts on social media and growing institutional participation. 👉 View real-time market tools