The cryptocurrency market experienced another downturn on September 4th, with Bitcoin dropping to around $55,600 and altcoins seeing even more significant losses, reminiscent of last year's bear market levels. As we head into the final four months of the year, opinions from various institutions and influential figures are divided on the market’s direction, offering differing short and long-term investment advice.
Despite the mixed signals, several key factors are likely to shape the crypto market in the coming months. These include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, the U.S. election, SEC regulatory strategies, FTX’s debt repayment schedule, the performance of U.S. stocks and tech shares, flows into U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, and the Bitcoin halving cycle. Amid expectations of rate cuts and the halving, many investors and institutions are positioning themselves early. However, some analysts warn of short-term risks, suggesting Bitcoin could still retreat to the $40,000–$50,000 range.
To help clarify the market outlook, we’ve compiled insights from leading analysts and recent market developments, categorizing them into bullish and bearish perspectives.
Bullish Factors and Viewpoints
Several analysts and firms remain optimistic about Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, citing both on-chain metrics and macroeconomic trends.
Supply Dynamics and Market Structure
According to the ETC Group Research Lead, Bitcoin’s illiquid supply has reached a record high of 74% of total supply. This indicates that the supply shock triggered by the halving is intensifying, which could provide significant momentum for Bitcoin and other crypto assets in the coming months.
Grayscale notes that a weaker U.S. dollar and sustained lower interest rates would be positive for Bitcoin. The main downside risks to crypto valuations would be a further rise in unemployment and a potential recession. However, they believe policymakers would likely respond with stimulus measures to counteract any economic downturn.
Historical Trends and Price Patterns
Rekt Capital highlights Bitcoin’s historically strong performance in October. Data shows that Bitcoin has only declined in October during bear market years like 2014 and 2018. Given that the market is currently in a halving year, and considering that October has typically brought double-digit gains (averaging 22%), there is reason for optimism.
Another analyst, Titan of Crypto, suggests Bitcoin could reach $110,000 by 2025. He points to the formation of a "cup and handle" pattern—a bullish chart formation—indicating potential future price appreciation. He expects peaks in Q4 2024, with a possible run to $100,000 in Q1 2025.
Macroeconomic Policies and Market Signals
Bitfinex analysts note that a 25-basis-point rate cut could signal the start of a typical easing cycle, while a more aggressive 50-point cut might cause an immediate spike in Bitcoin’s price, though it could be followed by a pullback if recession fears intensify.
QCP Capital identifies strong support for Bitcoin around $54,000, with the options market still showing mid-term bullish signals. They also mention that upcoming macroeconomic data, such as jobless claims and non-farm payrolls, may have less impact on crypto prices recently.
On-Chain and Miner Metrics
Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s average hash rate has grown steadily over the past year, with significant growth in 2024. Historically, hash rate trends have correlated with price movements, reflecting miner confidence and overall market sentiment.
CryptoQuant analysts point to the Puell Multiple, an on-chain metric, which suggests Bitcoin is nearing a "favorable" buying level. Additionally, the low Bitcoin hash price might indicate that BTC is接近底部.
Glassnode also observes that the Net Realized Profit/Loss metric has stabilized in the second half of the year, indicating a balance between profit-taking and losses as the post-halving market matures.
Institutional Adoption and Positive Developments
Real Vision’s chief crypto analyst remains wildly bullish, suggesting Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by the end of 2024 and enter a "crazy season."
In broader adoption news:
- Russia now allows the use of cryptocurrency for international trade.
- The SEC is no longer seeking to restart hedge fund trading fee disclosure rules.
- Zurich Cantonal Bank has launched Bitcoin and crypto products.
- Metaplanet has partnered with SBI’s crypto division to continuously accumulate Bitcoin, already holding 360 BTC ($207 million) as a primary reserve asset.
- U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of 975 BTC in August.
- The number of addresses holding over 100 BTC reached 16,120, a 17-month high.
- The President of Venezuela has proposed重返加密货币道路, potentially重新采取对加密货币友好的立场.
- Crypto losses in August dropped to a record low of $15 million.
- Starbucks now accepts Bitcoin in El Salvador.
- According to Greeks.live, whales are beginning to position for long strategies, with increased large block call options expiring in late September and October.
Bearish Factors and Risks
Not all signals are positive. Several analysts and firms caution about potential downsides and upcoming risks.
Macroeconomic and Liquidity Concerns
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warns that if interest rates rise again and market liquidity tightens, Bitcoin could face another correction.
Trader T notes that institutional investment in Bitcoin and its derivatives was not active in August. The MSTR-BTC sentiment data showed +1.1x for upside and -1.3x for downside, indicating a bearish tilt in market expectations regarding MicroStrategy’s correlation with Bitcoin.
Bitfinex’s report suggests a potential 15-20% drop around the time of a rate cut this month, with Bitcoin’s bottom possibly between $40,000 and $50,000.
Price Targets and Market Sentiment
Wolfe Research analysts believe Bitcoin could pull back below $50,000 before any potential rally in 2025. They expect Bitcoin to revisit the lower end of its range in the coming weeks and maintain a bearish outlook short- to mid-term.
10x Research warns that a potential short squeeze recently lifted Bitcoin prices, but September could be risky.
Seasonal and Structural Pressures
BTC Markets analysts point to the "September effect," where markets often dip due to portfolio rebalancing, tax-loss harvesting, and pre-election caution.
Kaiko, a crypto data provider, highlights a current supply overhang in the crypto market that could continue to weigh on prices. Major holders, including governments (the U.S. holds over $2 billion in Bitcoin, with other countries like the U.K., China, and Ukraine also holding significant reserves), might exacerbate selling pressure.
Citi notes that until there is clarity on the U.S. economic soft landing, ETF flows might continue to disappoint.
Technical and On-Chain Resistance
Analyst Ali observes that Bitcoin has struggled to break above $63,250 since June 22. This level has acted as resistance, as short-term holders tend to sell when prices approach their break-even point.
CryptoQuant warns that if Bitcoin falls below $56,000, the risk of a deeper correction increases.
Data from Farside Investors shows U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw their largest outflow in nearly four months on September 3, indicating weak sentiment. While Wall Street banks and hedge funds still held Bitcoin ETFs in Q2, overall flows have been疲软.
Trading Volume and Miner Activity
Matrixport reports that cryptocurrency trading volume in South Korea hit a yearly low last weekend.
Bitcoin miners saw their lowest monthly earnings this year in August.
Victory Securities notes that funding rates suggest stronger bearish力量 in the合约市场.
IntoTheBlock data indicates persistent selling pressure for Bitcoin between $61,700 and $70,500. Many investors who bought in this range are at a loss, leading them to sell when prices approach these levels to break even. This has made it difficult for Bitcoin to set new highs, requiring strong momentum to break through.
Finally, Spot On Chain data shows that over the past decade, Bitcoin has only ended September higher three times.
The Block Pro reports that adjusted on-chain transaction volume for Bitcoin and Ethereum fell 15.3% month-over-month in August to $377 billion, with Bitcoin down 12.1% and Ethereum down 20.2%.
Balanced Market Outlook
Currently, neither bullish nor bearish sentiments overwhelmingly dominate. The market perceives increased downside risk ahead of potential rate cuts, and other major factors like the election, U.S. economy, and regulation remain uncertain, capable of causing sudden volatility. However, institutions are generally optimistic about the long-term upward trend, and whales are quietly accumulating. In summary, retail investors should remain cautious, stay informed about market changes, and consider their risk tolerance.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the key factors affecting the crypto market in September?
The main factors include Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, macroeconomic data, Bitcoin ETF flows, miner selling pressure, and overall market sentiment. geopolitical events and regulatory news can also cause significant volatility.
Is now a good time to buy Bitcoin?
It depends on your investment horizon and risk tolerance. Some indicators suggest Bitcoin is near a bottom, but short-term volatility remains high. Consider dollar-cost averaging and never invest more than you can afford to lose.
What is the "September effect" in crypto?
The September effect refers to a historical tendency for cryptocurrency prices to dip during September due to factors like portfolio rebalancing by funds, tax-loss harvesting, and seasonal cautiousness among investors.
How might the U.S. election impact cryptocurrency prices?
Elections can create policy uncertainty, which often leads to market volatility. However, clear regulatory frameworks or pro-crypto policies from candidates could eventually positive for the market. It's essential to monitor developments closely.
What does Bitcoin's hash rate indicate about its price?
A rising hash rate generally indicates increased miner investment and network security, which has historically correlated with long-term price appreciation. However, it is not a perfect short-term predictor.
Where can I learn more about advanced trading strategies?
For those looking to deepen their market analysis, explore more strategies and tools that provide real-time data and educational resources. Always ensure you understand the risks involved in trading.