The Bitcoin halving, an event that reduces the block reward miners receive by half, is anticipated around April 20, though some projections suggest it might occur slightly earlier. This event is closely monitored by a wide range of network participants, including institutional traders, individual investors, and crypto enthusiasts worldwide.
Halvings occur every 210,000 blocks mined, or roughly every four years. Bitcoin has undergone three halvings so far: in 2012, the reward dropped from 50 BTC to 25 BTC per block; in 2016, it fell to 12.5 BTC; and the most recent one in May 2020 reduced it to 6.25 BTC. Future halvings will continue at similar intervals until the maximum supply of 21 million BTC is reached, expected around the year 2140.
Miners play a critical role in securing the Bitcoin network, and their actions before and after the halving can significantly influence market trends. For miners, the halving cuts their direct revenue from block rewards, which may temporarily reduce profitability—especially for those with higher operational costs. However, historical data shows that post-halving price increases have often allowed miners to recover and even grow their revenues over time.
According to an analyst report published on April 13 by Markus Thielen, Head of Research at 10x Research, Bitcoin miners might sell up to $5 billion worth of BTC after the halving. He noted:
“This overhang could last four to six months, which would explain why Bitcoin might trade sideways in the months after the halving—as it has done following past halvings.”
Indeed, after the 2020 halving, Bitcoin’s price moved within a narrow range between $9,000 and $11,500 for about five months. If history repeats itself this year, significant upward momentum might not emerge until around October.
On the other hand, miners often accumulate BTC before the halving, creating a supply-demand imbalance that can drive prices higher. Thielen suggested that major mining firms like Marathon Digital have already built inventories and “may sell gradually post-halving to avoid a revenue cliff.” Marathon currently produces 28–30 BTC per day, but after the halving, that output will drop to 14–15 BTC daily. If this surplus is sold daily, it could introduce 133 days of additional selling pressure.
The research concludes that if all major miners adopt a similar strategy of selling their stockpiles, “it could result in sales of up to $104 million worth of BTC per day—reversing the supply-demand imbalance that helped push Bitcoin higher pre-halving.”
Last week, Marathon’s CEO Peter Thiel highlighted that the company’s breakeven point post-halving would be around $46,000 per BTC. He also predicted that no major price movements should be expected within the first six months after the event.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Bitcoin halving?
The Bitcoin halving is a scheduled event that reduces the reward for mining new blocks by 50%. It occurs approximately every four years or after every 210,000 blocks are mined, and it continues until the maximum supply of 21 million BTC is reached.
How might the halving affect Bitcoin’s price?
Historically, Bitcoin’s price has increased significantly in the year following a halving. However, short-term sideways price action is common in the months immediately after the event due to miner selling pressure and market adjustment.
Why would miners sell Bitcoin after the halving?
Miners may sell portions of their BTC holdings to cover operational costs or avoid potential revenue shortfalls caused by the reduction in block rewards. Some large miners may also sell pre-accumulated inventories to manage cash flow.
What was the impact of previous halvings?
Past halvings (2012, 2016, and 2020) were followed by extended periods of consolidation before major bull markets emerged. The 2020 halving, for instance, led to five months of sideways trading before a strong upward trend began.
How can investors monitor miner activity?
Investors can track miner selling pressure via on-chain metrics, exchange inflow data from miner addresses, and public announcements from mining companies. Useful tools and dashboards are available for those wanting to analyze real-time miner behavior.
Is post-halving miner selling guaranteed?
Not necessarily. While some miners may sell, others might hold due to optimistic long-term views or sufficient capital reserves. Market conditions, energy costs, and Bitcoin’s price resilience also play important roles.
Understanding miner behavior and market cycles can help investors navigate the often volatile post-halving period. Those interested in deepening their strategy can explore additional market insights. Remember, though, that cryptocurrency investments carry risks, and it’s essential to do your own research and consider your financial situation before investing.