Shiba Inu (SHIB) has recently shown signs of volatility, bouncing from a critical support zone before surrendering most of its monthly gains. The confluence of long-term support levels around $0.0000113 is now under scrutiny, as a breakdown could trigger a substantial downward movement.
This analysis examines the current market structure, technical indicators, and wave count patterns to assess the likelihood of further declines and potential price targets.
Current Market Overview and Key Support
The weekly chart reveals that SHIB has been following an ascending support trend line since the market cycle began in June 2023. This trend line has been tested multiple times, with the most recent bounce occurring in March 2025 at the intersection with the $0.0000113 horizontal support area.
Despite a 45% rally from this level, the upward momentum was short-lived. SHIB failed to break through the $0.0000156 resistance level, and the price reversed on March 26, erasing most of the monthly gains.
Notably, the price did not sweep the August 2024 lows during this correction, suggesting the downward movement may not yet be complete.
Technical indicators on the weekly timeframe present a bearish outlook. Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) are trending downward and remain below their bullish thresholds of 50 and 0, respectively.
Wave Count Analysis and Price Projections
The Elliott Wave theory analysis suggests a bearish long-term outlook for SHIB. The price appears to have completed a five-wave downward movement after its 2021 all-time high, followed by an A-B-C corrective pattern.
This wave structure indicates that new lows are likely even in the most optimistic scenario. If the current decline forms an A-B-C structure with waves A and C achieving equal length, the price target would be approximately $0.0000077.
In a more bearish scenario where the decrease forms a five-wave downward movement, SHIB could fall below its 2023 low of $0.0000054. Both scenarios suggest continued downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.
A decisive breakdown below the $0.0000113 support level would confirm this bearish outlook and potentially trigger accelerated selling pressure.
Market Implications and Trading Considerations
The failure to sustain the March rally despite bouncing from critical support demonstrates the underlying weakness in SHIB's market structure. Traders and investors should monitor the $0.0000113 level closely, as a breakdown could signal the beginning of a new downward phase.
While short-term bounces may occur, the overall technical picture suggests caution is warranted. The combination of bearish indicator readings and concerning wave count patterns creates a challenging environment for bullish positions.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What is the critical support level for SHIB?
The key support zone to watch is approximately $0.0000113, where multiple technical elements converge including a long-term ascending trend line and horizontal support.
What are the potential price targets if support breaks?
According to wave count analysis, the primary target sits around $0.0000077 in a standard corrective pattern, while a more bearish scenario could see prices falling below the 2023 low of $0.0000054.
What technical indicators are important for SHIB analysis?
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) provide valuable insights, with both currently indicating bearish momentum below key threshold levels.
Did SHIB complete its correction in March 2025?
The failure to sweep August 2024 lows and the subsequent rejection from resistance suggest the correction may not be complete, increasing the likelihood of further downside.
How reliable is Elliott Wave theory for cryptocurrency analysis?
While no analytical method guarantees perfect accuracy, wave theory provides a framework for understanding market psychology and potential price movements, particularly when combined with other technical indicators.
What should traders watch for in the coming weeks?
The most critical factor is whether SHIB can maintain the $0.0000113 support level. A decisive break below this zone, particularly on weekly closing basis, would significantly increase bearish probabilities.
Disclaimer: This content is provided for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. All trading and investment decisions involve risk, and readers should conduct their own research and consult with professional advisors before making any financial decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results.