Standard Chartered’s digital assets research head, Geoffrey Kendrick, suggests Bitcoin may be on the verge of its strongest half-year performance ever in late 2025. Key drivers include unprecedented ETF inflows, potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy, and growing sovereign-level adoption.
This analysis challenges traditional halving cycle theories, pointing to structural changes in demand that could help Bitcoin defy historical price patterns.
Record ETF and Corporate Demand
According to Kendrick, Bitcoin ETF inflows and corporate treasury purchases exceeded 245,000 BTC in Q2 2024—a figure likely to be surpassed in both Q3 and Q4. These institutional flows represent a new type of demand not present in previous market cycles.
Standard Chartered has maintained its year-end Bitcoin price target of $200,000 while updating its Q3 projection to $135,000. The bank notes that ETF flows have already outperformed expectations, reinforcing confidence in Bitcoin’s post-halving strength.
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Policy Shifts and Regulatory Clarity
Kendrick highlights increasing risks to Federal Reserve independence, noting that potential leadership changes could lead to looser monetary policy. Since ETF and corporate treasury flows are closely tied to U.S. policy, such shifts may accelerate institutional adoption.
The recent passage of the GENIUS Act in the U.S. Senate is another positive signal. This legislation aims to provide clearer regulations for stablecoins and other digital assets, potentially easing integration between crypto and traditional finance.
Sovereign Adoption and Long-Term Stability
Beyond corporate demand, Kendrick anticipates more sovereign nations will begin acquiring Bitcoin indirectly or directly. Such moves would mirror the impact of corporate treasury accumulation and contribute to long-term price stability.
Any evidence of national-level buying would signal a major shift in how Bitcoin is perceived as a reserve asset—comparable to gold in the modern financial system.
Why This Cycle Is Different
Bitcoin’s halving events have historically been followed by a price decline roughly 18 months later. Based on the April 2024 halving, that would suggest a downturn around September or October 2025.
However, Kendrick argues that this cycle is different. Strong ETF inflows, corporate buying, and supportive policy trends are new variables that may override historical patterns.
While short-term volatility is expected around these historical inflection points, the overall trend is likely to remain upward through year-end.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is driving Bitcoin’s potential record performance in 2025?
Record-breaking ETF inflows, corporate treasury purchases, supportive U.S. policies, and emerging sovereign adoption are key factors. These elements form a new foundation of demand absent in earlier cycles.
How does the GENIUS Act affect Bitcoin?
The GENIUS Act provides regulatory clarity for stablecoins and digital assets, reducing uncertainty for institutions and potentially accelerating mainstream adoption.
Will Bitcoin still follow its halving cycle?
According to Standard Chartered, this cycle may break historical patterns due to structural changes in demand. ETF and corporate flows could outweigh traditional post-halving effects.
What is the price forecast for Bitcoin?
Standard Chartered maintains a $200,000 target by end of 2025, with a Q3 2025 projection of $135,000.
How does U.S. monetary policy influence Bitcoin?
Changes in Fed leadership or policy direction can affect liquidity, investor sentiment, and institutional participation—all of which influence Bitcoin’s price.
Is sovereign adoption of Bitcoin really happening?
While not yet widespread, analysts note growing interest from national entities. Any confirmed purchases would significantly impact long-term demand and market maturity.
Conclusion
Bitcoin is entering uncharted territory. With powerful new demand drivers and evolving regulatory frameworks, it may well rewrite its own historical patterns. As Kendrick summarized: “Buckle up.”
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