This year, leading cryptocurrency exchanges have adopted distinct listing strategies. A recent study offers a data-driven perspective on how these strategies have performed across five major platforms.
Key Exchange Listing Strategies in 2024
The approaches taken by top exchanges vary significantly. Binance and OKX have been the most selective, listing just 44 and 47 new tokens year-to-date, respectively. This contrasts sharply with the aggressive strategy of Bitget, which has listed 339 tokens, far surpassing its competitors and significantly increasing its market share this year. Meanwhile, both KuCoin and Bybit have listed over 150 tokens each so far in 2024.
Average Returns by Exchange
In the current market climate, most exchanges have seen negative average returns on their new listings. Bybit experienced the largest decline, with an average return of -50.20%. KuCoin followed closely at -48.30%, and Bitget's average return stood at -46.50%.
In comparison, Binance and OKX demonstrated relatively better performance, with average returns of -27.00% and -27.30%, respectively. This suggests their more selective listing strategies have been more effective, resulting in better relative token price performance despite a challenging altcoin market environment.
Listing Activity and Market Timing
Given the favorable market conditions early in the year, March and April became peak months for listing activity, particularly for Bitget, Bybit, and KuCoin, which saw a significant surge in new tokens. The total number of listings reached its highest point in April at 133, while August saw the lowest, with only 44 new tokens. Since April, listing numbers have been steadily declining across most exchanges until August.
Top Tokens by First-Month Trading Volume
Analysis reveals the 30 tokens with the largest trading volumes in their first month. ENA led the pack, achieving a first-month trading volume exceeding $15 billion. Among popular meme tokens, BOME, NElRO, and WIF saw significant trading activity. Other tokens like ZRO, TON, and lO also posted substantial first-month volumes ranging from $1 billion to $5 billion.
The Role of MC/FDV in Token Valuation
The Market Cap to Fully Diluted Valuation (MC/FDV) ratio is a crucial metric for assessing a token's floating market cap relative to its total valuation. Analytical rankings show that projects with a lower circulation ratio often have inflated valuations.
For Binance, tokens in the 0.4 to 0.6 range accounted for the largest share of the total FDV of its listings. This was largely driven by recent listings like TON, BANANA, and XAl. Tokens in the 0 to 0.4 range, such as TAO, JUP, ENA, and ZRO, also contributed significantly to the overall FDV.
OKX showed a higher concentration of tokens in the 0.6 to 0.8 and 0 to 0.2 ranges. Its notable high-FDV listings year-to-date include JUP, ONDO, ZRO, STRK, and ZK.
The other three exchanges listed tokens with a lower average FDV, reflecting a more diverse token selection strategy and potentially a lag in listing high-FDV tokens compared to Binance and OKX.
Distribution of Listings by MC/FDV Ratio
A notable trend emerges when analyzing the distribution of tokens across different MC/FDV ratios: most tokens tend to cluster at either very high or very low ratios, indicating a polarization in circulation percentages.
Interestingly, the highest valuations are often found in tokens occupying the middle range of the MC/FDV spectrum. This suggests that tokens which demonstrate both an established market presence and clear growth potential tend to attract greater investor interest. To see how different metrics can influence a token's performance, you can explore more market analysis strategies.
Trading Volume Trends: First 24 Hours and First Month
Trading activity immediately after a listing is a key indicator of market interest. Typically, the first 24 hours of trading account for 5-20% of a token's total first-month trading volume, though this varies by exchange. OKX was recorded as an outlier in September, where 40% of its activity was driven by the CATl and HMSTR tokens. KuCoin showed stronger engagement in the earlier months.
In terms of sheer volume, Binance leads the market in both average first 24-hour and first-month trading volumes among the five exchanges, followed by OKX. For Binance, April was the peak for average first-day trading volume, while May saw the highest first-month volume. Both volume metrics hit their lowest point in July, with a partial recovery in August and September. A similar dip and recovery trend was observed for OKX.
Time to All-Time High (ATH) and Average ATH ROI
The performance of a new listing can also be measured by how quickly it reaches its all-time high price and the return from the first-day price to that ATH.
Bybit and Bitget recorded the highest average ATH Return on Investment (ROI) for tokens listed between April and July. Meanwhile, Binance was the fastest of the five exchanges to see its listings reach their ATH for tokens listed between January and March, a period marked by significant volatility in Bitcoin's price.
This suggests a shift in market sentiment. When the price of BTC was rising significantly, the number of days to reach an ATH decreased, likely due to increased investor interest in new listings during the high-volatility period of January to March.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does MC/FDV ratio mean?
The MC/FDV ratio compares a cryptocurrency's current market capitalization (MC) to its fully diluted valuation (FDV). FDV calculates the market cap if all tokens, including those not yet in circulation, were released. A lower ratio means more tokens are left to be unlocked, which can indicate potential future selling pressure.
Why are Binance and OKX's average returns better?
The data suggests that Binance and OKX's more selective listing strategies, focusing on tokens with stronger fundamentals or higher demand, resulted in better average price performance for their new listings compared to exchanges that listed a much higher number of tokens.
How important is the first 24-hour trading volume?
The trading volume in the first 24 hours is a strong indicator of initial market interest and liquidity for a new token. It often sets the tone for its early price discovery phase and can represent a significant portion of its activity in the first month.
What is an ATH ROI?
ATH ROI measures the return an investor would have achieved if they bought a token on its first day of trading and sold it at its subsequent all-time high price. It's a useful metric for gauging the peak performance potential of a new listing.
Why did the number of listings decline after April?
The decline in new listings after April 2024 likely correlates with a cooling overall cryptocurrency market, reduced investor appetite for new speculative assets, and a more cautious regulatory environment, leading exchanges to slow their pace.
How does Bitcoin's price affect new token listings?
A rising Bitcoin price often creates a "greedy" or risk-on market sentiment. This can lead to increased investor interest in new, speculative altcoins, causing them to pump faster and reach their all-time highs more quickly, as seen in the January-March period.